願い返しの平均値と確率を記録する部屋

サブアカウントを含めた願い返しの記録が100を超えたので、平均値や確率を開示していきたいと思います。

平均値が動かなくなってきたので、そろそろ正しい値になってきたのかもしれません。

基本的には8000ぐらいが多いですが、たまに高めの値で平均値があがるので平均値は11500ぐらいとなっています。

平均値を下回る事が多くてストレスになる事もありますが、8000元宝貰えるイベントだと割り切って望むのが精神的に良いのかもしれません。

平均値

試行回数 累計平均
371 11495

30,300,3000,30000の合計増加量

結果範囲 回数 確率
32000以上 3 0.8%
30000-31999 3 0.8%
28000-29999 6 1.6%
26000-27999 2 0.5%
24000-26999 4 1.1%
22000-23999 1 0.3%
20000-21999 5 1.3%
18000-19999 7 1.9%
16000-17999 4 1.1%
14000-15999 40 10.8%
12000-13999 38 10.2%
10000-11999 61 16.4%
9000-9999 71 19.1%
8000-8999 80 21.6%
7000-7999 44 11.9%
6666-6999 3 0.8%

30000元宝引きの確率

結果範囲 回数 確率
58000以上 7 1.9%
56000-57999 4 1.1%
54000-55999 4 1.1%
52000-53999 2 0.5%
50000-51999 1 0.3%
48000-49999 4 1.1%
46000-47999 6 1.6%
44000-45999 14 3.8%
42000-43999 40 10.8%
40000-41999 43 11.6%
38000-39999 90 24.3%
36000-37999 156 42.0%

願い返し詳細(履歴)

日付 引く前の元宝 引いた後の元宝 30000引きの結果 累計元宝
2021/7/1 56,034 63,580 36,513 7,546
2021/7/1 54,809 65,490 39,785 10,681
2021/7/1 87,932 97,164 38,190 9,232
2021/7/1 59,532 67,002 36,190 7,470
2021/7/1 50,231 60,429 38,925 10,198
2021/7/1 71,392 84,550 40,536 13,158
2021/7/1 30,592 39,217 37,470 8,625
2021/7/1 98,759 106,702 36,391 7,943
2021/7/1 62,371 72,576 37,281 10,205
2021/7/1 53,717 60,940 36,522 7,223
2021/7/1 147,141 155,970 37,693 8,829
2021/7/1 69,186 78,188 37,629 9,002
2021/7/1 54,810 62,294 36,006 7,484
2021/7/1 167,083 175,759 36,181 8,676
2021/7/1 73,010 81,345 37,356 8,335
2021/7/1 113,239 121,870 36,891 8,631
2021/7/1 94,591 103,833 38,043 9,242
2021/7/13 70,741 86,616 44,341 15,875
2021/7/13 107,683 142,998 64,132 35,315
2021/7/13 122,078 135,958 41,274 13,880
2021/7/13 180,019 192,569 41,372 12,550
2021/7/13 100,694 132,759 60,558 32,065
2021/7/13 71,112 83,073 39,852 11,961
2021/7/13 41,597 55,607 42,467 14,010
2021/7/13 93,832 106,187 40,724 12,355
2021/7/13 65,190 76,588 39,759 11,398
2021/7/13 63,904 76,349 41,175 12,445
2021/7/13 122,710 136,880 42,650 14,170
2021/7/13 159,850 171,964 40,892 12,114
2021/7/13 85,665 99,530 41,224 13,865
2021/7/13 82,238 116,842 63,300 34,604
2021/7/13 65,709 78,874 41,956 13,165
2021/7/13 84,383 100,025 44,149 15,642
2021/8/1 57,192 67,030 38,958 9,838
2021/8/1 145,493 155,774 38,895 10,281
2021/8/1 34,392 56,334 51,011 21,942
2021/8/1 120,617 129,574 37,856 8,957
2021/8/1 175,164 183,750 37,051 8,586
2021/8/1 84,289 95,716 40,517 11,427
2021/8/1 91,143 100,072 37,778 8,929
2021/8/1 118,552 126,895 36,797 8,343
2021/8/1 85,144 94,268 37,756 9,124
2021/8/1 106,215 115,102 37,851 8,887
2021/8/1 97,156 105,352 36,683 8,196
2021/8/1 86,488 114,739 56,242 28,251
2021/8/1 108,177 118,655 39,509 10,478
2021/8/1 38,200 46,121 36,941 7,921
2021/8/1 69,510 77,390 36,833 7,880
2021/8/1 60,683 75,364 43,504 14,681
2021/8/1 196,034 204,142 37,223 8,108
2021/8/1 139,674 149,143 38,706 9,469
2021/8/13 40,248 54,664 42,992 14,416
2021/8/13 98,776 114,288 43,851 15,512
2021/8/13 99,892 112,157 40,035 12,265
2021/8/13 104,527 120,337 44,033 15,810
2021/8/13 97,273 111,396 42,507 14,123
2021/8/13 119,562 134,966 43,677 15,404
2021/8/13 53,301 65,351 40,803 12,050
2021/8/13 84,370 95,821 40,165 11,451
2021/8/13 108,407 124,406 44,421 15,999
2021/8/13 119,779 136,201 43,341 16,422
2021/8/13 124,410 135,106 39,058 10,696
2021/8/13 81,034 93,779 41,390 12,745
2021/8/13 161,229 179,049 44,508 17,820
2021/8/13 209,512 224,831 41,418 15,319
2021/8/13 153,423 181,680 56,864 28,257
2021/8/13 72,105 84,647 41,005 12,542
2021/8/13 59,334 71,146 40,301 11,812
2021/8/13 39,643 51,281 40,319 11,638
2021/8/13 110,486 124,398 42,522 13,912
2021/8/13 130,292 141,093 39,572 10,801
2021/8/13 72,305 84,804 40,703 12,499
2021/8/13 71,355 85,819 42,745 14,464
2021/9/1 186,710 202,535 43,516 15,825
2021/9/1 144,975 155,963 38,942 10,988
2021/9/1 140,481 164,317 52,895 23,836
2021/9/1 151,098 159,885 37,795 8,787
2021/9/1 98,274 106,250 37,005 7,976
2021/9/1 139,566 149,890 38,484 10,324
2021/9/1 129,313 138,361 37,575 9,048
2021/9/1 132,500 140,488 36,784 7,988
2021/9/1 107,231 117,438 38,544 10,207
2021/9/1 141,496 171,935 59,493 30,439
2021/9/1 125,317 138,585 41,908 13,268
2021/9/1 129,636 137,483 36,617 7,847
2021/9/1 90,054 99,267 37,767 9,213
2021/9/1 117,478 131,403 42,760 13,925
2021/9/1 139,081 149,182 38,031 10,101
2021/9/1 76,356 83,294 36,023 6,938
2021/9/1 116,226 126,082 38,671 9,856
2021/9/1 79,551 89,238 38,705 9,687
2021/9/1 91,369 98,431 36,160 7,062
2021/9/1 90,197 100,400 38,481 10,203
2021/9/1 54,261 64,897 39,317 10,636
2021/9/1 57,714 66,344 37,726 8,630
2021/9/1 31,594 41,614 37,818 10,020
2021/9/17 206,595 213,766 36,178 7,171
2021/9/17 160,638 168,075 36,377 7,437
2021/9/17 64,012 72,629 36,813 8,617
2021/9/17 162,655 171,054 37,407 8,399
2021/9/17 92,565 102,355 38,083 9,790
2021/9/17 154,980 169,332 43,214 14,352
2021/9/17 145,631 158,988 40,572 13,357
2021/9/17 149,818 159,411 38,095 9,593
2021/9/17 66,228 74,736 36,280 8,508
2021/9/17 96,485 105,268 37,563 8,783
2021/9/17 141,700 149,860 37,244 8,160
2021/9/17 139,793 153,525 42,591 13,732
2021/9/17 100,262 110,084 38,314 9,822
2021/9/17 132,153 142,114 38,967 9,961
2021/9/17 151,812 159,707 36,717 7,895
2021/9/17 85,104 93,759 37,721 8,655
2021/9/17 128,117 136,682 37,614 8,565
2021/9/17 42,043 54,982 41,245 12,939
2021/9/17 100,521 115,125 43,633 14,604
2021/9/17 101,585 110,640 37,752 9,055
2021/9/17 66,827 75,009 37,307 8,182
2021/9/17 68,614 77,426 37,402 8,812
2021/9/17 38,984 60,507 49,971 21,523
2021/10/1 141,686 153,634 40,800 11,948
2021/10/1 170,525 179,335 37,332 8,810
2021/10/1 76,859 86,219 38,494 9,360
2021/10/1 154,194 163,326 38,156 9,132
2021/10/1 103,630 112,513 37,525 8,883
2021/10/1 112,262 120,052 36,758 7,790
2021/10/1 159,998 168,424 36,502 8,426
2021/10/2 138,815 149,669 37,993 10,854
2021/10/1 74,566 82,962 36,205 8,396
2021/10/1 109,873 117,349 36,661 7,476
2021/10/1 152,890 160,165 36,514 7,275
2021/10/1 157,770 167,216 37,676 9,446
2021/10/1 115,774 126,478 37,844 10,704
2021/10/1 110,564 130,982 48,940 20,418
2021/10/1 59,422 68,740 38,137 9,318
2021/10/1 98,199 107,568 38,245 9,369
2021/10/1 140,327 149,751 38,484 9,424
2021/10/1 55,922 66,912 38,989 10,990
2021/10/1 120,120 129,887 38,591 9,767
2021/10/1 114,270 123,167 37,332 8,897
2021/10/1 78,814 93,070 43,296 14,256
2021/10/1 81,521 88,961 36,392 7,440
2021/10/1 66,037 78,076 41,040 12,039
2021/10/15 87,954 95,978 36,507 8,024
2021/10/15 35,939 50,351 43,398 14,412
2021/10/15 90,389 98,393 36,439 8,004
2021/10/15 165,056 173,110 37,171 8,054
2021/10/15 29,783 39,511 38,771 9,728
2021/10/15 121,462 129,594 37,155 8,132
2021/10/15 117,149 127,085 37,685 9,936
2021/10/15 111,899 120,670 37,430 8,771
2021/10/15 97,752 111,088 42,243 13,336
2021/10/15 118,779 126,489 36,629 7,710
2021/10/15 160,355 168,831 37,402 8,476
2021/10/15 167,966 174,958 36,230 6,992
2021/10/15 126,588 136,504 38,666 9,916
2021/10/15 130,527 146,190 44,181 15,663
2021/10/15 66,520 74,797 37,336 8,277
2021/10/15 108,728 118,231 38,449 9,503
2021/10/15 149,861 159,570 36,998 9,709
2021/10/15 70,512 101,083 59,142 30,571
2021/10/15 130,157 141,797 38,709 11,640
2021/10/15 123,397 144,269 49,474 20,872
2021/10/15 93,315 108,227 43,586 14,912
2021/10/15 89,531 97,803 36,818 8,272
2021/10/15 78,866 90,922 40,472 12,056
2021/11/1 70,543 79,260 37,781 8,717
2021/11/1 53,166 67,568 43,450 14,402
2021/11/1 62,538 71,298 37,599 8,760
2021/11/1 86,515 100,608 42,975 14,093
2021/11/1 42,661 52,603 38,264 9,942
2021/11/1 58,963 68,750 38,731 9,787
2021/11/1 130,485 140,902 38,654 10,417
2021/11/1 65,827 76,319 38,751 10,492
2021/11/1 112,928 131,181 47,208 18,253
2021/11/1 36,149 44,139 36,849 7,990
2021/11/1 91,561 101,373 38,664 9,812
2021/11/1 85,938 93,759 36,938 7,821
2021/11/1 74,514 82,082 36,282 7,568
2021/11/1 133,570 140,630 36,160 7,060
2021/11/1 78,597 86,415 36,541 7,818
2021/11/1 76,541 84,074 36,578 7,533
2021/11/1 71,130 79,895 37,904 8,765
2021/11/1 92,638 101,166 37,618 8,528
2021/11/1 50,097 79,218 56,990 29,121
2021/11/1 45,439 55,190 37,579 9,751
2021/11/1 66,247 74,039 37,054 7,792
2021/11/1 56,913 65,766 37,809 8,853
2021/11/1 48,022 56,296 37,324 8,274
2021/11/16 85,120 93,759 37,581 8,639
2021/11/16 72,348 83,282 38,083 10,934
2021/11/16 75,698 86,645 38,142 10,947
2021/11/16 38,803 48,891 39,251 10,088
2021/11/16 59,918 67,123 36,128 7,205
2021/11/16 70,610 80,204 36,866 9,594
2021/11/16 31,284 39,430 37,286 8,146
2021/11/16 32,312 41,612 38,071 9,300
2021/11/16 92,049 100,900 37,851 8,851
2021/11/16 31,806 46,672 43,967 14,866
2021/11/16 48,809 56,035 38,666 7,226
2021/11/16 103,063 114,191 38,850 11,128
2021/11/16 53,344 62,288 37,743 8,944
2021/11/16 83,832 96,236 41,305 12,404
2021/11/16 91,490 101,371 38,665 9,881
2021/11/16 87,695 95,079 36,442 7,384
2021/11/16 84,954 95,598 39,236 10,644
2021/11/16 81,900 90,538 37,633 8,638
2021/11/16 49,271 64,896 44,746 15,625
2021/11/16 80,883 88,039 36,201 7,156
2021/11/16 55,020 83,283 55,480 28,263
2021/11/16 74,719 82,975 37,129 8,256
2021/11/16 66,941 76,096 37,488 9,155
2021/11/16 57,516 71,932 43,433 14,416
2021/12/1 78,009 87,381 38,495 9,372
2021/12/1 71,972 80,154 37,152 8,182
2021/12/1 60,885 68,659 36,662 7,774
2021/12/1 46,621 56,701 38,976 10,080
2021/12/1 56,544 67,161 39,854 10,617
2021/12/1 44,600 54,762 37,673 10,162
2021/12/1 46,132 54,750 37,144 8,618
2021/12/1 37,084 48,951 38,939 11,867
2021/12/1 32,007 40,858 38,044 8,851
2021/12/1 33,280 63,655 58,842 30,375
2021/12/1 62,046 70,475 37,382 8,429
2021/12/1 38,438 47,630 37,524 9,192
2021/12/1 77,351 87,067 38,795 9,716
2021/12/1 96,346 116,666 49,510 20,320
2021/12/1 71,569 101,063 58,883 29,494
2021/12/1 92,113 101,856 38,648 9,743
2021/12/1 68,628 78,413 38,915 9,785
2021/12/1 70,171 77,372 36,309 7,201
2021/12/1 69,519 82,662 42,244 13,143
2021/12/1 82,133 89,779 36,896 7,646
2021/12/1 78,435 86,984 37,566 8,549
2021/12/1 50,746 59,083 37,460 8,337
2021/12/1 51,262 77,428 54,639 26,166
2021/12/1 30,509 45,172 43,321 14,663
2021/12/17 92,401 101,874 37,554 9,473
2021/12/17 86,209 94,394 37,286 8,185
2021/12/17 75,839 86,061 38,662 10,222
2021/12/17 63,401 77,572 42,668 14,171
2021/12/17 44,992 54,256 38,359 9,264
2021/12/17 70,611 79,040 37,363 8,429
2021/12/17 30,506 40,545 38,442 10,039
2021/12/17 67,290 76,672 37,799 9,382
2021/12/19 78,211 97,337 47,938 19,126
2021/12/17 48,343 57,243 37,709 8,900
2021/12/17 66,955 74,387 36,180 7,432
2021/12/18 72,680 82,272 37,860 9,592
2021/12/18 50,935 61,961 40,118 11,026
2021/12/18 88,722 98,050 38,118 9,328
2021/12/18 119,616 129,359 38,883 9,743
2021/12/18 104,403 115,889 40,702 11,486
2021/12/19 106,216 115,684 38,405 9,468
2021/12/19 82,273 91,640 38,466 9,367
2021/12/19 38,122 48,191 37,181 10,069
2021/12/19 85,312 92,953 36,258 7,641
2021/12/19 93,089 101,239 37,204 8,150
2021/12/19 90,474 108,927 46,838 18,453
2021/12/19 62,163 70,351 37,142 8,188
2021/12/19 79,058 88,584 38,375 9,526
2022/1/1 106,241 119,425 41,803 13,184
2022/1/1 98,766 112,239 41,867 13,473
2022/1/1 90,628 103,054 41,117 12,426
2022/1/1 40,114 54,421 42,897 14,307
2022/1/1 59,713 70,783 39,545 11,070
2022/1/1 87,317 100,184 40,619 12,867
2022/1/1 44,597 62,837 44,572 18,240
2022/1/1 83,614 103,162 47,937 19,548
2022/1/1 104,924 118,016 41,595 13,092
2022/1/1 65,465 80,976 43,874 15,511
2022/1/1 81,764 97,605 44,245 15,841
2022/1/1 89,254 107,641 47,100 18,387
2022/1/1 68,513 82,689 42,428 14,176
2022/1/1 104,115 122,180 46,724 18,065
2022/1/2 135,371 146,944 40,033 11,573
2022/1/2 121,896 134,211 40,929 12,315
2022/1/2 120,279 133,713 42,160 13,434
2022/1/2 97,747 112,261 43,157 14,514
2022/1/2 54,748 70,360 44,522 15,612
2022/1/2 99,040 115,122 44,711 16,082
2022/1/2 107,606 119,167 40,005 11,561
2022/1/2 113,177 125,942 41,081 12,765
2022/1/2 76,518 88,990 40,895 12,472
2022/1/2 96,041 107,900 40,483 11,859
2022/1/16 121,655 130,704 38,157 9,049
2022/1/16 114,094 123,603 37,815 9,509
2022/1/16 105,364 114,529 37,540 9,165
2022/1/16 56,296 66,369 38,744 10,073
2022/1/16 73,633 81,748 36,324 8,115
2022/1/16 102,349 112,059 38,645 9,710
2022/1/16 67,752 78,146 38,861 10,394
2022/1/16 101,402 115,739 43,173 14,337
2022/1/17 93,436 102,933 38,466 9,497
2022/1/17 82,521 91,544 38,101 9,023
2022/1/17 95,910 104,039 37,231 8,129
2022/1/17 108,931 117,797 37,963 8,866
2022/1/17 84,089 93,252 38,171 9,163
2022/1/17 124,157 134,678 38,653 10,521
2022/1/17 148,174 162,406 42,516 14,232
2022/1/17 135,311 143,821 36,877 8,510
2022/1/17 137,260 166,226 57,445 28,966
2022/1/17 113,361 123,520 39,135 10,159
2022/1/17 71,785 82,802 38,878 11,017
2022/1/17 116,387 129,197 41,567 12,810
2022/1/17 120,587 130,627 38,992 10,040
2022/1/17 128,719 137,556 37,991 8,837
2022/1/17 90,580 100,718 37,558 10,138
2022/1/17 109,430 119,814 39,542 10,384
2022/2/2 97,339 106,235 36,479 8,896
2022/2/2 123,263 134,526 40,333 11,263
2022/2/2 111,629 120,326 37,692 8,697
2022/2/2 65,854 91,687 54,822 25,833
2022/2/2 81,488 93,105 40,597 11,617
2022/2/2 114,629 125,099 38,358 10,470
2022/2/2 58,461 74,862 43,115 16,401
2022/2/2 114,459 122,860 37,503 8,401
2022/2/2 109,419 119,608 38,545 10,189
2022/2/2 97,939 111,258 43,122 13,319
2022/2/2 106,839 117,315 39,357 10,476
2022/2/2 116,472 123,992 36,376 7,520
2022/2/2 92,077 107,903 44,121 15,826
2022/2/2 133,053 142,516 38,373 9,463
2022/2/2 160,931 170,033 37,586 9,102
2022/2/2 142,271 149,706 36,546 7,435
2022/2/2 165,481 172,451 36,022 6,970
2022/2/2 121,970 131,707 38,235 9,737
2022/2/2 88,822 104,426 43,871 15,604
2022/2/2 130,797 144,196 41,824 13,399
2022/2/2 129,377 137,057 36,558 7,680
2022/2/18 108,395 134,948 55,619 26,553
2022/2/18 136,556 145,951 38,402 9,395
2022/2/18 125,486 133,778 37,012 8,292
2022/2/18 93,967 103,443 38,573 9,476
2022/2/18 95,655 104,411 37,776 8,756
2022/2/18 127,319 142,777 44,390 15,458
2022/2/18 56,322 70,491 43,265 14,169
2022/2/18 127,580 136,717 38,098 9,137
2022/2/18 74,638 82,879 36,606 8,241
2022/2/18 93,868 102,871 37,831 9,003
2022/2/18 119,595 128,662 38,032 9,067
2022/2/18 125,482 134,383 37,921 8,901
2022/2/18 109,703 118,644 37,993 8,941
2022/2/18 143,836 152,596 37,298 8,760
2022/2/18 171,513 179,652 36,984 8,139
2022/2/18 150,936 160,889 37,078 9,953
2022/2/18 174,241 182,325 36,092 8,084
2022/2/18 132,922 142,493 37,861 9,571
2022/2/18 84,526 92,682 37,265 8,156
2022/2/18 70,944 85,519 42,890 14,575
2022/2/18 138,577 145,938 36,258 7,361
2022/3/1 136,358 144,281 37,026 7,923
2022/3/1 147,451 160,641 42,163 13,190
2022/3/1 135,298 145,045 38,698 9,747
2022/3/1 104,798 117,916 42,043 13,118
2022/3/1 105,931 113,237 36,414 7,306
2022/3/1 144,187 152,453 37,278 8,266
2022/3/1 130,017 141,216 37,988 11,199
2022/3/1 135,298 144,952 38,735 9,654
2022/3/1 119,669 128,513 37,953 8,844
2022/3/1 153,321 162,673 37,989 9,352
2022/3/1 180,457 189,640 37,700 9,183
2022/3/1 161,639 171,744 38,799 10,105
2022/3/1 183,550 191,242 36,651 7,692
2022/3/1 143,188 168,196 53,885 25,008
2022/3/1 86,479 94,134 36,701 7,655
2022/3/1 146,758 156,279 38,350 9,521
2022/3/1 88,337 96,776 37,485 8,439
2022/3/1 107,246 119,198 41,037 11,952
2022/3/1 94,967 102,867 36,870 7,900
2022/3/1 72,131 87,472 44,305 15,341
2022/3/1 87,769 96,239 37,536 8,470
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  1. kz より:

    大変参考になります。7/13と8/13は最大2.2倍だったと思うのですが、最大2.0倍の時と2.2倍の時とで分けて集計して頂けるとありがたいです。

    • けんけん より:

      ご指摘の通り、願い返し返しの倍率が異なるものが混在しているのは認識しております。
      倍率を変えるのも運営の意思次第で、どの倍率がどの頻度で来るか分からないと思います。
      このサイトの意図としては、願い返し1回辺りの期待値を示す事になります。運営が良い倍率で開催してくれれば、それだけ平均が上がるのは、意図通りになりますので、時系列での単純な統計とさせて頂いています。
      ご期待に添えず申し訳ありません。

  2. けんけん より:

    前回の回答と同じですが、倍率毎の期待値が知りたい訳では無く、統計開始から、願い返し1回あたりいくら元宝を貰えているかを記録するためのものとなります。一様日付けと詳細データは残していますので、欲しいデータに合わせてご利用頂ければと思います。

  3. kz より:

    たしかにそうですね。了解しました。
    非常に有用な情報が多いサイトなので、応援してます。
    これからも更新よろしくお願いします。

  4. […] >>313 そうか? まぁ俺も上で出てるサイトの平均を鵜呑みにして 自分の感覚と一致してたってだけだけどさ もう一個願い返しの平均記録してるとこあったけどそっちは11753だとか https://houchishojo.com/2021/09/18/negaigaeshi/上記は管理外のサイトへのアクセスとなります。でも11753は上振れだと思うがだとしても1万を大きく割ることはないだろうかと […]